My Built Environment: Good, Bad, and Really Ugly

Over the years, I have formed my own theories on how planning should occur. Imagine if you will, we were just now pioneers in this area with a totally clean slate. The water was pure, wildlife was abundant, the air was clean….yet settlers were ready to move in. What should we do differently? This is just my opinion of course, and is based solely on environmental and social concerns, my top 10 list if you will, not in any particular order.

1) River corridors should be given a mile wide corridor. The only development allowed would be recreational such as trails and parks, the occasional street crossings, and some public infrastructure, such as water and sewer plans. I propose this to protect our wetlands, floodplain mitigation, and to allow the rivers to naturally meander.

2) Stream and creek corridors are given a half mile wide corridor. Again, for the same reasons as above.

3) Land Ownership and political boundaries would follow physio graphic features. I understand that our grid system of land ownership made sense…in some areas. That is why we have arterial streets on section lines that are more like roller coasters going up and down hills. Roads should follow the lay of the land. Or, I know of one parcel and the neighboring parcel that both have a creek running across them. They both end up with unusable parcels on the opposite sides of the creek…the property line should follow the creek. Of course following the creek violates my rule above, but you get the point. This also is important in watershed management, wildlife management, resource management, and a myriad of other things.

4) Comprehensive planning, and mixed use would be the norm.

5) Communities would be smaller, around 2 mile radius, everything would be walkable, with all the shopping and most of the jobs easily accessible, reducing the need for private vehicles. There would be more communities at 5-10 mile spacings, with the areas in between for agriculture, recreation, etc. These communities would be connected by mass transit.

6) High emphasis would be placed on architecture, sustainability, and usability.

7) Placemaking would be the starting point…not an afterthought.

8) Designing for the pedestrian environment and socialization would be a priority over designing for vehicular circulation.

9) There would very limited development with a half mile of highway corridors, such as interstates. This is to keep them as a pleasant driving experience. The only development allowed would be occasional service centers. Also, no residential development within a mile of interstates.

10) There would be no urban sprawl. Period. End of Story.

Well, it has finally happened. As we all know, gas prices have shot through the roof, and it is hitting us all in the pocket book. In my opinion, we have been living on borrowed time for a long time with relatively low gas prices, and it is finally time to pay the bill. People have been asking me a lot lately what this will mean for the development industry that is already down and out for the most part. To me, it basically means that most of the things I have been predicting for the last decade are finally going to come true, and we will have a paradigm shift in the way people live their lives. We are finally going to have to recognize resource conservation, and not just gasoline. Anyway, here are a few of my thoughts.

DOWNSIZING
No, I am not just talking about the empty nester’s who don’t need all that room now that the kids are gone. People are going to start realizing that they don’t need the McMansion’s on the hill, 5-6,000 square feet with 1 acre and more lots. Not only is this a lot of house to heat, cool, and maintain, but that is a lot of ground to maintain, water, fertilize. People are going to look for smaller homes, I say in the 1,800 to 3,000 square foot range on smaller lots. They might even become adjusted to raising families in townhomes, condos, or other high density living areas. The “Not so Big House” phenomena will become the norm, not just the latest fad.

But even more importantly, people are going to downsize there neighborhoods. They are going to want to live, work, and shop in relatively small geographical areas. People are going to become increasingly more willing to live in New Urbanism style developments with mixed income, mixed product, and mixed lifestyles all wrapped together. The one size fits all mega-burbs with the look-alike homes are going to be a thing of the past. People really want a sense of community and belonging. And the with cost of transportation, they won’t want to drive 5 blocks to the pool, or 5 miles to the grocery store. They will walk or ride there bike.

Which leads me to my next point. I think we are going to see the rise once again of the corner grocery store…in the 10-30,000 square foot range. This supports the concept of sustainability and not having to drive for miles to pick up a gallon of milk. Of course, only denser development can support this kind of store.

This is happening now. As proof I offer up Stapleton, Lowry, and a host of other New Urbanism projects. In a down housing cycle, these projects are still selling well, and at a premium also. Stapleton is now about 1/2 built out, in only 6 years.

SUSTAINABILITY
Of course, this is hardly new, as being “green” is what it is all about. But there are multiple levels of sustainability. One level is building homes and commercial buildings that are energy efficient. This has been happening for some time now, and it keeps getting better. Of course, when I started building homes back in 2000, I was focusing on energy efficiency. Back then though, nobody wanted to pay the premium for that. I am always ahead of my time it seems.

However, another level of sustainability involves land conservation, redevelopment, higher density development, reduced sprawl, water conservation, etc. I think we will see community gardens become more popular. Maybe we will see edible landscapes. People are going to have to get used to more native and wild landscaping…and not the manicured lawns with lollipop shrubs.

We are already seeing recycling becoming a way of life…now people are getting into composting. All of this keeps stuff out of the landfill. I think we are starting to see a paradigm shift of quality versus quantity. People will buy things that will last for years, and not look at products as being disposable. If it breaks I will just get a new one. I know I have been guilty of that myself.

Anyway, I had some other thoughts, but at the moment they escape me. Of course, none of this will come about overnight, but I do believe that with the cost of transportation now, it will happen faster than it would have otherwise.

For the past 6 months or so, we have been hard at work developing a new concept for Habitat for Humanity here in Fort Collins. They had purchased a few adjoining multi-family lots that allowed a total of 8 units. However, with there experience at building the last multi-family building (see previous blogs), they did not wish to build any more. So working together we came up with an innovative concept that clusters 8 single family cottage homes on the 3 multi-family lots. Three of the units face a street, but the others are clustered around a central greenbelt.

In all, we developed three plans for Habitat. Plan C, the ranch plan, is designed for ADA accessibility, has a 2 car attached garage. The other two plans, A & B are story and half designs with a main floor bedroom and two bedrooms and a bath upstairs. All plans are designed for an optional basement that would could accommodate additional bedrooms if family size dictates. These two plans have a detached one-car garage that is accessed from an alley type private drive.

We are hoping that this concept will become a new model for higher density construction that provides some of the economies of scale as a town home design, but with being single family construction allows flexibility in family selection, funding, and sponsor assignment.

I found this during one of my wandering adventures the other day. Now I admit this isn’t particularly ugly, but just plain stupid. In this development I found several blocks of homes that had an alley running behind them. That is all fine and good. Trouble is, most of the homes were built with front load garages, and not alley load garages. In this particular development, this is a waste of resources since the front load homes require a fairly substantial setback. This leaves the homes with a very small backyard. The few rear load homes that were built, had shorter front setbacks, and bigger backyards. The second problem is, this was just a waste of land and resources to build the alley, that won’t get used for its intended purpose. Sometimes, I wonder what developers/builders and homebuyers are thinking.

Tonight I attended the Group Inc’s real estate forecast presentation for 2008. For those of you not in Northern Colorado, The Group is the largest real estate firm in Northern Colorado. The main thing I got out of it, which is what I have been thinking, and have been hearing from many people, is that our local market has “bottomed out” for lack of a better term. Things are going to start improving. It won’t be booming by any means, but it will be more balanced. The latter half of the year looks to be better than the first half, and that will carry over into 2009. For the next year, they are predicting that sales will be slightly over 2007, which was down a little from 2006, which in turn really dropped from 2005. That points to a bottom of the market. It is funny though how things are in perspective. For Fort Collins, they are predicting about 3,700 home sales. For everyone concerned that is a down market for around here. Interestingly, that is only 300 sales less than the peak back in 2004, and is similar to the sales pace in 1998. I remember 1998 being a pretty good year. It is amazing how it is all relative.

They also stated that in some neighborhoods, price points, etc. there is actually a shortage of homes available, which can happen in any market, good or bad.

Now for what I wish they would have done. I wish they would have spent some time talking about the various market segments, where is the activity? I wish they would have spent some time talking about what buyers are looking for, where they are coming from…what product is selling. Is the only thing selling homes Granite Kitchen counter tops, or are buyers looking for something else.

Now, for my predictions. Overall, I feel the market will continue to improve, though at a sustainable pace, not a torrid pace. I think the markets will be there for infill product, niche product, and amenity based communities. I think people are going to demand more from good design and architecture. They will want their homes to be unique and individual, a reflection of who they are…even from production builders. The street scape will become more important, with a variety of architectural styles, colors and materials. The look alike homes of the past decade will become a thing of the past. I predict buyers will become more interested in mixed use and mixed income neighborhoods…intermixing products within blocks, and not so segregated as they have been in the past. Buyers are going to continue to look for homes and neighborhoods that are designed within the context of the green movement, and that are energy efficient.

Well, that is all for now. I would be interested to hear what your thoughts are!